Why the African Continental Free Trade Agreement has not yet turned into Reality — and What That Means for Egypt

Executive Summary

The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) remains one of the most ambitious integration projects in the world. Yet, several years into its operational phase, it has not (yet) delivered the structural shift many expected. A recent analysis underscores the gap between political momentum and economic reality: implementation remains uneven, the agreement is still used by only a portion of participating states, and non-tariff barriers and infrastructure deficits continue to dominate the cost of doing business across borders.  For Egypt, the opportunity is still real — but it depends less on treaty headlines and more on enabling conditions: trade logistics, customs efficiency, regulatory convergence, and competitive industrial capacity. 

Looking Back: The Promise of a Single African Market

When the AfCFTA was launched, expectations were understandably high. A continent-wide trade framework was supposed to reduce tariffs, facilitate trade in goods and services, and strengthen regional value chains — with the broader goal of moving African economies up the value ladder.

In my 2022 article, I asked whether AfCFTA could become a game changer for Egypt, given Egypt’s industrial base, strategic geography, and the potential to diversify export markets beyond traditional partners. (For background, see the earlier article here”).

The Reality Check: Intra-African Trade Remains Structurally Weak

Several years later, the interim assessment is sobering. As the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ) recently put it, AfCFTA is not a “game changer” yet, and only about half of member states currently meet the practical prerequisites to trade under the agreement.

A deeper reason is structural: no other world region trades so little with itself, and while statistics may undercount informal cross-border flows (especially in food), the overall picture remains unchanged.

Trade integration cannot deliver transformative outcomes if production, logistics, and institutions do not support scale.

Implementation Has Been Slow — and Often Symbolic

Operationalisation did not start with full-scale liberalisation. Instead, the AfCFTA began with a pilot approach: the Guided Trade Initiative (GTI) launched in October 2022, initially with eight states, later joined by additional countries, including Nigeria and South Africa by spring 2025.

The GTI created valuable learning effects, but it also underlined a key point: early progress was often presented through symbolic deals, while product coverage and volumes remained limited. FAZ highlights that only selected goods could be traded duty-free and that key sectors remained constrained for a long time due to missing or unresolved technical rules.

A pilot, however, cannot substitute for full operational certainty — the kind businesses need to restructure supply chains and invest.

Tariffs Are Not the Main Barrier — Trade Costs Are

AfCFTA is frequently discussed in terms of tariff liberalisation. Yet, evidence suggests that the largest gains do not come from tariffs but from reducing non-tariff barriers and improving trade infrastructure.

FAZ points to a central reality: tariffs tend to add around 20–30% to intra-African trade costs, whereas non-tariff costs can be far higher — driven by bureaucracy, lack of harmonised standards, inefficient border processes, and transport barriers.

This is the crux: even with reduced tariffs, trade will not expand meaningfully if goods still cannot move cheaply, quickly, and predictably.

Integration Complexity and Distributional Politics

Africa’s integration landscape is shaped by multiple overlapping regional economic communities and trade regimes. This creates legal and administrative complexity — often described as an integration “spaghetti bowl.” FAZ notes the challenge of coordination and the continued fragmentation of rules.

There is also a political economy dimension. Intra-African trade is heavily influenced by a small number of larger economies — and the distribution of benefits matters. FAZ highlights the dominance of major players (notably South Africa) and the concern that tariff liberalisation alone may entrench existing industrial advantages.

Where governments expect asymmetric outcomes, resistance often takes the form of delay, narrow implementation, or persistent non-tariff barriers.

What This Means for Egypt: The Opportunity Is Real — But Conditional

Egypt’s strategic case for AfCFTA participation remains strong: industrial potential, geographic location, and the opportunity to access and shape growing markets. But the experience so far suggests that the treaty text alone does not generate trade flows.

For Egypt’s private sector, the decisive factors are practical:

• predictable and efficient customs clearance and border procedures,
• logistics corridors and port efficiency,
• regulatory convergence (standards, certification, compliance),
• stable access to trade finance and payments,
• competitive energy and production conditions for manufacturing and processing.

AfCFTA can support these developments — but it cannot replace them.

The “Game Changer” Pathway: What Must Happen Next

FAZ concludes that AfCFTA will only become truly impactful if it is paired with the fundamentals: major infrastructure investment, stronger production and processing capacity, and a credible industrial policy.

At the same time, Africa faces a classic chicken-and-egg problem: without development there is limited investment appeal; without investment there is limited development.

For Egypt and its partners, a pragmatic strategy would be to:

1. treat AfCFTA as a platform for real trade-cost reduction, not only tariff debates;
2. focus on a limited number of scalable corridors and sectors where regional value chains can realistically grow;
3. strengthen implementation capacity so that preferences become usable for firms — especially SMEs;
4. enhance legal certainty and dispute resolution reliability for cross-border commerce.

Conclusion

AfCFTA remains a landmark achievement in terms of political commitment. But as of today, it has not yet been the “game changer” many hoped for.

For Egypt, the key question is no longer whether AfCFTA is visionary — it is. The question is whether governments and businesses can translate it into lower real trade costs, higher competitiveness, and bankable cross-border transactions. If those enabling conditions improve, AfCFTA’s promise can still become commercial reality.