Rising Oil Prices and International Contracts: How to Manage Hardship in Global Supply Chains

The Strait of Hormuz is likely the most strategically important point for the global oil trade. In fact, approximately 20% of the world’s oil and gas passes through this narrow passage between the Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf every day.

Following the outbreak of war in the region, the impact on energy markets was almost immediate: oil prices quickly rose above $100 per barrel, and it is unclear how high they may climb in the coming weeks and months. As a result, transportation, production, and procurement costs are rising across industrial supply chains in many sectors.

For many companies engaged in international trade, this phenomenon creates a very real problem. Contracts signed months (or years) earlier—perhaps at a fixed price—must be fulfilled in a completely different economic context.

A manufacturer that sells goods for delivery in six or twelve months may find itself producing and shipping at much higher energy costs, while the price agreed upon with the customer remains unchanged.

This is a situation that recurs cyclically, for various reasons: from the COVID-19 pandemic to the subsequent raw materials crisis, and on to current geopolitical tensions.

When the increase in costs is so sudden and significant, a question inevitably arises: must the contract still be performed under the original terms, or is it possible to suspend or renegotiate the agreement to adapt it to the new circumstances?

The answer depends on several factors: first and foremost, on what the parties have (or have not) provided for in the contract, but also on the law applicable to the relationship and on the interpretation that judges or arbitrators may give to the rules in the event of a dispute.

Force Majeure and Hardship: Two Different Concepts

When extraordinary events occur—such as a war, an energy crisis, or the disruption of a trade route—many operators immediately invoke force majeure. However, in most cases, these situations fall instead under the category of hardship.

It is therefore essential to distinguish between these two situations.

When an Event Constitutes Force Majeure

Force majeure applies to cases where an extraordinary and unforeseeable event makes it impossible to perform the contract.

The characteristics of the grounds for exemption from liability depend on the law applicable to the commercial relationship, but generally require:

• unpredictability of the event;
• the event being beyond the affected party’s control;
• the impossibility of avoiding or overcoming the event through reasonable efforts.

Typical examples include:

• orders from authorities requiring the suspension of production
• embargoes or export bans
• logistical disruptions caused by war

In these situations, performance is not merely more costly: it becomes objectively impossible. The consequence is that the party unable to perform is generally exempt from liability for the duration of the event.

Hardship

The situation is different when performance of the contract remains possible but becomes economically much more burdensome.

The concept of hardship is generally based on four prerequisites:

1. an event occurring after the conclusion of the contract
2. unpredictability and extraordinary nature of the event
3. a substantial alteration of the economic balance of the contract
4. excessive burden of performance, but not impossibility

A sharp increase in the price of oil, gas, or other raw materials often falls into this category.

Goods can be produced and delivered, but doing so may entail costs far higher than those anticipated when the contract was signed.

The ripple effect along the international supply chain

In global industrial supply chains, the same goods are often the subject of a series of consecutive contracts.

The manufacturer sells to a trader, who sells to a processing company, which resells to an importer in another country, who in turn distributes the product to the end market.

When a hardship event occurs—such as a sharp rise in energy prices—the effect tends to ripple throughout the entire supply chain.

The first party affected by the cost increase will try to pass the increase on to its contractual counterpart, who, in turn, will find themselves in the same situation with the next link in the chain.

The risk is clear: one of the operators in the middle of the chain may face increased upstream costs without being able to pass them on downstream.

This is one of the most common problems in international supply chains.

What happens if there is no clause regarding price fluctuations

In commercial practice, it often happens that parties operate on the basis of orders and order confirmations without a formal written contract, or that a contract exists but contains no provisions regarding price fluctuations or hardship.

In such cases, when costs increase sharply, it is necessary to determine which law applies to individual sales contracts across the supply chain.

This can lead to very different situations:

• one law may allow for price revision or termination of the contract
• another law aplicable to a second contract may not provide for equivalent remedies
• a third contract may contain much more restrictive contractual clauses

The practical result is that an operator in the middle of the chain may face a price increase from their supplier without being able to pass it on to the customer.

A Common Legal Framework: The Vienna Convention on the International Sale of Goods (CISG)

Fortunately, many international sales contracts are governed by the 1980 Vienna Convention on the International Sale of Goods (CISG).

The convention has been ratified by 97 countries, including Italy and most major trading partners, such as the U.S., Canada, China, Germany, France, Spain, etc.

The central provision is Article 79, according to which a party is not liable for non-performance if it proves that the non-performance is due to an impediment:

• beyond its control
• unforeseeable at the time of the conclusion of the contract
• unavoidable or insurmountable

Traditionally, this provision has been applied to cases of force majeure.

In recent years, there has been debate over whether it can also be applied to cases of hardship, but international case law tends to be very cautious.

International case law on Hardship

Court decisions reflect a rather strict approach.

In some cases, even very significant increases in raw material costs have not been considered sufficient to modify or suspend the contract.

The reasoning is simple: those who operate professionally in international trade must take into account a certain degree of market volatility.

Only when the increase in costs exceeds an exceptional and unforeseeable level such as to radically alter the balance of the contract can hardship be invoked.

One of the most frequently cited cases is the Belgian Supreme Court’s decision in the Scafom case, which recognized the right to renegotiate the contract following a 70% increase in the price of steel.

However, such cases are relatively rare.

Generic clauses that serve no purpose

Many contracts contain hardship clauses copied from standard templates (boilerplate).

The problem is that these clauses often:

• list the effects of hardship
• but do not define when hardship actually occurs

The result is that, when prices rise, the parties may have very different opinions on what constitutes an “exceptional” increase and whether the event in question was “unforeseeable” or not.

The clause, therefore, does not resolve the issue, but defers it to discussion between the parties and, in the event of a failure to reach an agreement, to the courts or arbitrators.

What criteria can define a hardship situation

To make the clause truly effective, it is useful to establish objective parameters.

Among the most commonly used in international contracts:

• an increase or decrease in the price of a raw material beyond a certain threshold (±20% or ±30%)
• an increase in transportation or logistics costs within certain limits;
• significant fluctuations in the exchange rate beyond a specified range;
• the introduction of tariffs or trade restrictions

These parameters, linked to tolerance ranges, allow the parties to quickly and unambiguously identify a hardship event.

Remedies in the Event of Hardship

An effective clause should also address how to handle the situation.

The most common solutions are:

• renegotiation of the contract in good faith
• apply an automatic price adjustment
• appointment of an independent third-party expert to determine the new price
• temporary suspension of the contract
• right of withdrawal if no agreement is reached

These tools allow the parties to manage the crisis without resorting to litigation.

Audit of existing contracts: what to do now

At this point, the practical question becomes: how should we manage the issue in existing business relationships?

The first step is to conduct an audit of existing contracts with suppliers and customers.

1. Introduce comprehensive contracts in new relationships

If the relationships are governed solely by purchase orders and order confirmations, it is advisable to take this opportunity to draft comprehensive international sales contracts that include:

• a hardship clause
• warranty provisions
• remedies for breach
• limitations of liability

2. Update existing contracts

If the relationship is already governed by a contract, you should check whether a hardship clause exists.

If not, it may be useful to propose to the other party:

• a new contract, or
• a contract addendum dedicated to managing price fluctuations.

This helps prevent future conflicts and provides both parties with an effective tool to manage potential price shocks along the supply chain.

Conclusion

Commodity and energy crises demonstrate how exposed international contracts are to sudden changes in economic conditions. When a contract does not clearly address hardship management, the risk does not disappear; it simply shifts along the supply chain until it settles on the weakest link.

For this reason, companies operating within international supply chains should view the hardship clause as a strategic tool for managing contractual risk. A well-drafted contract does not eliminate market volatility, but it allows the parties to address it with clear rules, reducing uncertainty and preventing disputes.