The USA vs. Brazil Trade War | How to Lose a Trade Partner in 10 Tweets

Donald Trump, never one to shy away from drama or diplomacy-via-caps-lock, has slapped a 50% tariff on all Brazilian exports to the United States. The justification? In his own delicate prose: «The treatment of former President Jair Bolsonaro is a disgrace… A witch hunt that must end IMMEDIATELY!»

And just in case anyone thought this was about trade imbalances or economic strategy, Trump made things crystal clear: «Due to Brazil’s insidious attacks on free elections…».

In short, the 50% tariff isn’t about coffee, orange juice, or flip-flops. It’s about a Supreme Court judgment, applying Brazilian law, regarding Brazilian politicians accused of conspiring in a coup d’état. In other words, this is a brazen (and frankly absurd) attempt at judicial intervention via trade war.

Trump, with his characteristic subtlety, offered a solution: manufacture in the U.S., and he’ll look kindly upon Brazil, like a mafia don offering «protection» after smashing your shop window. But what he meant was: consider Bolsonaro innocent, and we’ll talk.

The Brazilian market took the bait

Although the fishy interference in Brazilian affairs was determined from a fish out of the water, the market took the bait: in the first 48 hours after the infamous letter, at least 1500 tons of fish were already held in Brazilian ports, as US buyers suspended their contracts due to uncertainty about the costs upon arrival. The fish market is on alert, as 80% of the exports head to the US, mainly coming from small family-owned industries that distribute the catch from artisanal fishing communities.

The same effect hit other sectors, from orange, honey, and coffee to aircraft.

Brazil’s response and sorcery: don’t mess with us (or our weather)

Naturally, Brazil will not sit quietly sipping caipirinhas while its sovereignty is trampled. Reciprocity is on the table: if Washington raises tariffs, Brasília can do the same. But above all, one thing is sure: Brazil will never tolerate foreign interference in its independent judiciary.

And then, a curious coincidence: right after Trump’s speech, a tornado accompanied by lightning struck the White House grounds. Pure chance? Maybe. Or could it have been the work of Brazilian indigenous shamans, a particularly well-organized group of umbanda practitioners, or simply the fact that, as every Brazilian child knows, God is Brazilian.

Trump might want to check the weather forecast next time before penning another angry letter.

The unpredictable becoming predictable

Trade wars are rarely tidy affairs, but one thing they consistently deliver is chaos (in legal terms, disruption). And when disruption meets contracts, force majeure disputes often end up in court.

At first glance, Trump’s decision to impose a 50% tariff overnight might feel like an unpredictable thunderbolt (quite literally, given the weather at the White House). But here’s the catch: by now, unpredictable tariffs are becoming predictable. When a government with a well-documented love for impulsive economic diplomacy imposes politically motivated tariffs, can anyone claim to be surprised?

In most jurisdictions, force majeure requires that the event be extraordinary, unforeseeable, and beyond the parties’ control. A sudden 50% tariff certainly ticks a few of those boxes, but following a repetition of erratic trade policy, one might argue that businesses should expect what in past times was considered unexpected, especially when dealing with certain jurisdictions or political figures. In other words, Trump’s tariffs might not excuse performance if parties didn’t prepare for exactly this kind of volatility.

This is where good contract drafting comes into play

Savvy businesses are learning that their contracts must go beyond a vague boilerplate clause about “acts of government” or “changes in law.” Instead, they should expressly address the risk of sudden tariff changes, including

• hardship clauses that allow renegotiation when costs become commercially unreasonable;
• price adjustment mechanisms linked to tariff thresholds;
• termination rights triggered by specified levels of customs duties;
• currency fluctuation provisions (because tariffs rarely travel alone, and currency swings often accompany them).

In short, while no contract can immunize a business from every shock, smart drafting can mean the difference between a commercial headache and a catastrophic breach.

Therefore, tariffs may no longer be an unpredictable storm; they are part of the new predictable landscape. Given that your contract might wake up tomorrow facing ‘IMMEDIATE’ punitive tariffs in all caps, your contract should be ready today.

The unwitting cupid: strengthening EU-Brazil relations

While the tariffs may ruffle trade flows between Brasília and Washington, there’s an unintended silver lining: Trump is proving to be the most efficient matchmaker between Brazil and other markets, such as China and the European Union.

The EU-Brazil relationship, already a flirtation with promising prospects, with relevant progress in the EU-Mercosur Agreement, now seems destined for deeper romance. If Mr. Trump insists on isolating the US from Brazil, the old continent stands ready, with flowers and wine in hand, to pick up where the US left off. After all, Brazilian fish can pair up nicely with champagne, cava and prosecco.

So thank you, Mr. Trump. In your quest to bully Brazil into submission, you may have done more to strengthen transatlantic ties than any EU Commissioner ever could. As they say in Brasília these days: Trump is not a trade warrior. He’s a cupid in disguise.